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| #111090 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 15.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD.... SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN WHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 31.3N 53.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
