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| #1110915 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 07.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 The structure of the depression has not changed much this morning. Based on surface observations and radar data from Curacao, it appears the center of the system has passed south of Aruba and moved over the far northern Gulf of Venezuela. The deepest convection is still confined to the southern and western portions of the circulation. There has been a slight increase in convection well to the north of the center during the past several hours, but it lacks organization at this time. Unfortunately, the center of the depression was not sampled by overnight ASCAT data swaths. Recent subjective satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. The depression is still moving westward at 280/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge entrenched over the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico will remain the primary steering mechanism for the next few days. This ridge should keep the cyclone on a westward heading as it crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approaches the coast of Nicaragua later this weekend. The steering flow is consistent among the global models, and the track model guidance remains tightly clustered through landfall. Then, the system is forecast to reach the western extent of the ridge and gradually turn toward the west-northwest at 72-96 h as it moves across Central America. Due to the consistency in the track guidance, the latest NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Given the cyclone`s proximity to land, only gradual strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone passes near or over the Guajira Peninsula. Still, the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Once the system moves away from land and reaches the warm waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions should support a faster rate of intensification. Generally weak to moderate deep-layer shear is forecast as the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable environment, and the multi-model intensity guidance consensus supports the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 48 h. In fact, conditions should remain generally favorable for intensification through landfall, and the official NHC forecast lies on the higher end of the models near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken over the terrain of Central America and dissipate early next week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across Aruba and portions of northern Venezuela during the next several hours. 2. The system is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane when it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the system`s progress, as additional watches or warnings are likely to be required for portions of these areas later today. 3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 12.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.7N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.1N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 13.2N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 13.2N 82.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 13.5N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 14.1N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 16.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
