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#111092 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 15.Sep.2006)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 43.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 46.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.8N 48.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 54.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART