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| #1110948 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 07.Oct.2022) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 73.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
