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| #1111019 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 07.Oct.2022) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 ...JULIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 76.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Julia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue through Saturday night, with a westward motion at at a slower forward speed expected Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over Central America by Monday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Monday: San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches. Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
