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| #1111200 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 09.Oct.2022) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...JULIA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 84.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala, from the El Salvador/Guatemala border to the Guatemala/Mexico border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Julia was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 84.0 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Bluefields International Airport in Nicaragua recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue for the next few hours on the islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras within the watch area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning area beginning this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through early Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres, Providencia, and Panama...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge near the coast. Water levels should be receding on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands as Julia continues moving inland over Nicaragua. SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
