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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 262 (Idalia) , Major: 262 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 262 (Idalia) Major: 262 (Idalia)
 
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#111132 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 16.Sep.2006)
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE NOW RAGGED EYE
SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5 AND 4.0...AND GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 65 KT. GORDON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CROSSES THE 27C ISOTHERM AND MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE RECEIVES A
SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW GORDON
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE
NOGAPS KEEPS GORDON AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
NOGAPS MODEL ROBUST BOGUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3 AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT AT
DAY 4.

GORDON HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE LEFT OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN
MODEL SPREAD IS SEEN AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FORWARD SPEED
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...
CONU...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.0N 53.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 33.2N 52.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 35.1N 51.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.3N 48.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB