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| #1111516 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 11.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: *Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. *Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting Thursday. SURF: Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake |
