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| #1111545 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:16 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0300 UTC WED OCT 12 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTHWARD TO ROCA PARTIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO ROCA PARTIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
