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| #1111578 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 12.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to 33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later today. Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
