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| #1111637 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 12.Oct.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 1800 UTC WED OCT 12 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.5W AT 12/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.5W AT 12/1800Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
