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| #1111714 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 12.Oct.2022) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.1N 93.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N 93.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
