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| #1111741 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 13.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Karl has become less organized since the last advisory due to the effects of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The central convection has decreased, and the strongest convection is now occurring in a band well east of the center. Surface wind estimates received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft since the last advisory were in the 40-45 kt range, and recently-received scatterometer data showed no winds higher than 40 kt. In addition, the last aircraft-reported central pressure had risen to 1002 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt. Karl remains nearly stationary. A mid-level ridge located over west-central Mexico and a high-amplitude mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States are expected to impart northerly or northwesterly flow over Karl today, which should push the cyclone southeastward and southward into the Bay of Campeche during the next couple of days. A turn toward the southwest could occur near the end of the forecast period as the steering flow becomes more northeasterly. The guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The new track shows the center of Karl reaching the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday morning. A combination of northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Karl to gradually weaken during the next couple of days, and the new intensity forecast shows a little more weakening before the cyclone makes landfall. This part of the intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, quick weakening is expected, with Karl forecast to become a depression by 60 h, a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast due to the reduced initial intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday or early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.4N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.7N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 18.7N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 16.4N 95.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
