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| #1111769 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 AM 13.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Frontera A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
