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| #1111819 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 13.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 The partially exposed center of Karl is evident in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. The convective overcast has a sharp edge on the northwestern side of the circulation, indicating that strong west-northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occurring mainly downshear of the center, where the deepest convection has been ongoing today. Despite finding a slightly lower minimum pressure than this morning, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported flight-level winds and SFMR data early this afternoon that support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with recent ASCAT wind data. The hostile environmental conditions that Karl is contending with are not expected to improve during the next day or so. Moderate west-northwesterly shear and continued intrusions of drier mid-level air should make it difficult for Karl's convective organization to improve much. The latest guidance suggests that little change in strength or even slight weakening is possible during the next 24-36 hours as the storm moves toward the coast. The NHC track forecast still shows Karl moving onshore as a tropical storm on Friday night or early Saturday, then quickly weakening and eventually dissipating over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by Saturday night. Karl is moving south-southeastward at a faster forward speed than earlier today (155/6 kt). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a southward to south-southwestward motion on Friday as Karl moves around the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. The NHC track forecast has once again been adjusted slightly eastward in the direction of the latest multi-model consensus aids. There are still some along-track differences noted in the guidance, with the slower GFS and HWRF solutions moving Karl inland later than the rest of the global models. Following a consensus approach, the NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one and shows Karl just inland by 36 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 20.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.1N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
