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| #1111959 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 14.Oct.2022) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL THIS EVENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
