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| #1111961 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 14.Oct.2022) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 The deep convection associated with Karl collapsed around midday, with dry air and deep-layer shear continuing to take a toll on the cyclone. The second half of the previous Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found the minimum pressure had increased to around 1003 mb, and the peak 850-mb flight-level winds were only 39 kt. Some ASCAT passes across the eastern portion of the circulation showed at least 25-30 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, with some higher tropical-storm-force vectors flagged as marginal. Based on these data and the latest satellite estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. This could be generous given the current lack of convection, but another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm this evening. The last few aircraft fixes and earlier ASCAT data indicated the center of Karl was not moving very much. Although the long-term motion is estimated at 195/4 kt, the near-term motion appears to be more of a west-southwestward drift. The shallow cyclone is expected to move generally southwestward during the next day or so as it becomes steered by a low-level ridge to the north. More of the latest track models show the center of Karl moving slower and more southwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and so the NHC forecast has been adjusted westward from the previous track. Karl will likely struggle to generate more organized convection in the near term given the persistent shear and lack of mid-level moisture in its environment. Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Karl weakening to a depression by early Saturday and degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h, when it is near the coast of southern Mexico. Dissipation should occur soon thereafter due to the increased likelihood of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 19.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.1N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
