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| #111283 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 16.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A 16/2351Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE 3 AGENCIES SUGEGST THAT GORDON IS A BORDERLINE 65-KT HURRICANE...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE GORDON AND TURN THE CYCLONE INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/03. NORTHWARD RIDGING TO THE EAST OF GORDON NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOULD NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN GORDON NORTHEASTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH BRINGS GORDON VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS AS A 50-KT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GORDON COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 32.0N 53.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 33.3N 53.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.3N 51.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 37.4N 47.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0000Z 40.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
