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| #111326 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 17.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 GORDON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/05. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL GIVE GORDON A KICK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...PUSHING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF GORDON'S RAGGED EYE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C SEEN IN POST-ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE JUSTIFY MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AT 12 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GORDON MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GORDON PASSING CLOSE TO THE AZORES AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AND INDICATES MERGER WITH THE FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER. THE WIND RADII FORECAST REFLECTS THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE MORE EASTERLY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN GORDON AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 32.6N 53.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 33.8N 52.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 35.9N 49.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 45.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 39.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB |
