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| #111381 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 17.Sep.2006) TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 49.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 49.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 50.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
