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| #1114123 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 30.Oct.2022) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Satellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate there has been little change in the structure of the disturbance this evening. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is apparent in satellite imagery between two areas of disorganized convection to the northwest of a loosely-curved convective band. The aircraft data shows that the circulation at 460 mb is located to the southeast of the surface center and is not well defined at that level. Dropsondes to the northeast of the center showed surface winds of 30 kt, and drops near the center suggest the central pressure is near 1005 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The estimated initial motion is a little to the left of the previous advisory, 280/10 kt. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so due to the presence of a westward moving mid-level ridge north of the center. After that time, the ridge should build a little faster toward the west and southwest, resulting in a south of west motion as the system approaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just after 72 h. The forecast guidance has shifted southward through 60 h, and the new forecast track is nudged in that direction. However, the new track lies to the north of the various consensus models. It should be noted that the the forecast track could undergo some additional adjustments until the circulation center becomes better defined. A combination of the current disorganized structure, moderate west-northwesterly shear, and weakly convergent upper-level flow should limit intensification for the next 12-24 h. However, the system is still expected to become a tropical storm in about 12 h when the convection increases during the diurnal maximum. After 24 h, increased upper-level divergence, decreased shear, and better organization should allow a faster development rate, and the system is expected to steadily strengthen. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula, with a forecast peak intensity of 70 kt being near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. No changes to the current watches are required at this time. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for Jamaica Monday morning depending on the evolution of the track and the 34-kt wind radii. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand Cayman Island. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.8N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/1200Z 16.0N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/0000Z 16.3N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 16.7N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.1N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 17.3N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.1N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
