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| #1114138 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 31.Oct.2022) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 75.5W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman Island A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required early this week. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 75.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. A faster rate of strengthening is expected starting tonight, and the system could be near hurricane strength Tuesday night or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Jamaica beginning this afternoon and are possible on Grand Cayman Island on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday evening, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could lead to flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
