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| #1114162 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 31.Oct.2022) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 The system has changed little in organization overnight. Deep convection is not very extensive at this time and convective banding features are rather limited, as evidenced by a Dvorak classification of T1.0 from TAFB. Thus, the disturbance still lacks sufficient organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is somewhat elongated from south to north, and the maximum winds are 30-35 kt. Satellite images show that the broad center is located just to the west of the main area of deep convection. The disturbance continues moving generally westward, or around 270/10 kt. A mid-level anticyclone to the north of the system should maintain a westward to west-northwestward track for the next 48 hours or so. Then, as the high shifts westward, the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward when it nears the coast of Belize or eastern Yucatan. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus and not much different from the previous NHC prediction. It should be noted, however, that the the forecast track could undergo some additional adjustments until the circulation center becomes better defined. It is expected that the system will acquire sufficient convective organization to make the transition to a tropical cyclone in 12 hours or so. During the next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters and moving through a fairly moist air mass. Also, the upper-level winds are forecast by the global models to become increasingly anticyclonic which should enhance the outflow over the area. Therefore strengthening appears likely and the official forecast continues to call for hurricane status before landfall in Belize or the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. This is near or above the latest intensity consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning today for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand Cayman Island. 2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/1800Z 16.1N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/0600Z 16.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 16.8N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 17.2N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 17.4N 86.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 17.2N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
