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| #1114192 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 31.Oct.2022) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
