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| #1114209 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 31.Oct.2022) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 ...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 77.6W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within about 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west- northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lisa could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today. RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Guatemala, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized totals of 6 inches. For Belize, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with localized totals as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
