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| #1114232 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 31.Oct.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Satellite images indicate that Lisa is becoming better organized. A large ball of convection has formed just southeast of the center, and banding features are becoming more prominent northwest of the center. Additionally, wind data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the low-level circulation was becoming less elongated, with a more circular pattern on the final pass. The plane found maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 49 kt and numerous SFMR values of 35 kt during the mission. This was the basis for the 40 kt initial wind speed on the intermediate, and that value is kept for this advisory. Cirrus cloud motions are showing that the upper-level flow near Lisa is changing from westerly to easterly, with outflow also increasing in the western quadrant. This change suggests that the shear is abating near the tropical cyclone. While oceanic conditions are also favorable for strengthening, there is still a fair bit of dry air aloft that Lisa will have to encounter, which could temper intensification rates. Overall, gradual strengthening is expected, and the new forecast is similar to the previous one. Interestingly, the model guidance is stronger than the last cycle, perhaps due to the aircraft data, and is now more consistent with the latest NHC intensity prediction. Aircraft fixes show that Lisa continues to move westward at about 12 kt. There have been no changes to the synoptic pattern with the storm forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. Lisa should move westward or possibly a little south-of-west while it approaches Belize on Wednesday due to the ridge strengthening. Model guidance remains in very good agreement and, similar to the last advisory, a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, with the core of Lisa impacting Belize on Wednesday. We will have to monitor whether some portion of Lisa tries to pull a trick in the southern Bay of Campeche at long range with some models suggesting that a portion of the circulation could make it there, but that`s not considered likely at this time. Hurricane watches have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras and Belize due to the new forecast and timing, with tropical storm watches on the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Guatemala and portions of the southeastern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of Jamaica, the north coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. 2. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday. 3. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.5N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
