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| #111427 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 17.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON ONCE AGAIN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY. AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND WELL- ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ARE ALL PRESENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT. GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 020/12. IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF GORDON...AND A RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO STEER GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST..AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT TWO DAYS NEAR THE AZORES. BY DAY 3...MOSTLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MERGES THE CYCLONE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS GORDON UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 34.6N 52.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 36.3N 50.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 38.0N 46.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 40.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 39.7N 32.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA |
