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| #1114349 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 01.Nov.2022) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 ...LISA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 83.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands * North of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire north coast of Honduras * North coast of Guatemala * Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 83.3 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of: * 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas. * 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras, and central Guatemala * 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
