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| #1114352 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 01.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 500 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022 Martin has a tight low-level center with a small central dense overcast and some outer banding. However, the deep convection remains somewhat fragmentary, and the system may still have some hybrid characteristics remaining. The subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB came in at a 3.0, or around 45 kt. Fortunately, there`s also some in-situ data from drifting buoy 44018, which just reported a 993 mb surface pressure value close to the system`s center. Based upon this, the central pressure is assessed at 991 mb and intensity is boosted slightly to 50 kt. The tropical storm is moving a bit faster - 11 kt - toward the east, as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the system. Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly rapid forward speed during the next two days. The official track forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly clustered global and hurricane dynamical models, and slightly to the right - eastward - of the previous advisory at 60-72 hr. From days three to five, Martin should decelerate as it interacts with a developing extratropical low to its north. For the intensity, the SSTs are a lukewarm 25-26C, which is a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this latitude. This anomalous surface warmth along with quite cold upper-level temperatures should provide an unstable atmosphere. The mid-level moisture that Martin is currently embedded within is quite dry, but is expected to moisten up by tomorrow. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in roughly the same direction as the shear vector. Within these generally conducive conditions, the system is expected to steadily intensify. The official intensity forecast is similar to that previously issued, and is based on a consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical models. Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into an extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the system. A significant change to the official forecast has Martin continuing now for five days as the new global models suggest that Martin will remain the dominant vortex and not be absorbed. It is expected that Martin will be a large and powerful extratropical system threatening the North Atlantic shipping lanes through days four and five. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 35.5N 52.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 37.3N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 41.0N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 47.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 04/0600Z 55.5N 31.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 59.0N 32.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z 60.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea |
