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| #1114387 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 01.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found that Lisa is strengthening this evening. Lisa is a small storm, with tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to 60 n mi from the center. The minimum central pressure continues to fall, and the latest estimate from the dropsonde observations is 993 mb. Data from the SFMR and Tail Doppler Radar show that surface or near-surface winds range between 55 to 60 kt, and the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Lisa is on a strengthening trend. Models suggest atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be conducive for additional intensification until the storm makes landfall in Belize within 24 hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is still possible. The official forecast shows a peak of 75 kt in 12 hours, however the true peak intensity will likely occur between 12 and 24 hours and could be higher. Rapid weakening is expected after the storm moves inland, and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche in 72 to 96 hours and weaken to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The storm is moving just north of west at 280/13 kt. The track reasoning is unchanged. A ridge to the north will continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall on Wednesday evening. The storm is expected to follow the flow around the low-to-mid level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 3 days or so. The cyclone is then expected to turn southward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory in the short term, and the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been adjusted northward to account for this shift. Key Messages: 1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan by Wednesday afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning early Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1200Z 17.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 17.5N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0000Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/0000Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/0000Z 18.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
