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| #1114421 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum central pressure was near 992 mb. Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from Belize show little change in organization, and based on these observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt. Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern Mexico. The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall. The storm is the expected to follow the flow around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60 h. After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn southward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h. Key Messages: 1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan by this afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 19.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
