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| #1114457 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022 Satellite images indicate that Martin now has a better-defined eye, with a tight banding pattern wrapping over one degree around the center. Additionally, early-morning microwave data show that the cyclone has a closed low-level ring on the 37 GHz channel and most of an eyewall on the 91 GHz. Dvorak intensity estimates have increased since the last cycle, and the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt, near the SAB estimate. The hurricane has about a day left within an unstable atmosphere and moderate shear to further intensify in the conventional tropical cyclone manner. However, a more interesting event could happen in the early-morning hours tomorrow as extratropical transition begins. Most of the high-resolution hurricane models and even some of the global models are showing a sting-jet-like feature occurring on the southern side of Martin in about 24 hours due to a favorable trough interaction. Guidance is quite a bit higher than the last cycle and, with good agreement in the models, the official intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 h, then blended back toward the global model consensus. Martin should be a very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over the far North Atlantic. Martin is making a leftward turn and accelerating, now estimated at 060/23 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more northeastward and accelerate over the next day hours as it becomes drawn into a strong deep-layer trough from Atlantic Canada. This same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its extratropical transition by tomorrow afternoon. The merger of both systems will lead to a rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt radii, and this continues to be indicated in the wind-radii forecast. After this trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical cyclone will slow down and then move generally eastward over the remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps a northward bend early next week. There is increasing uncertainty on the final disposition of the low, perhaps near the British Isles or turning northward towards Iceland. The new forecast is moved north of the previous one at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 35.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 37.6N 46.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 43.4N 39.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 51.9N 35.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/0000Z 56.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z 56.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 56.5N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 60.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake |
