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| #1114547 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Satellite and radar imagery showed Lisa made landfall earlier this evening around 2120 UTC southwest of Belize City. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 75 kt and 990 mb, respectively. The storm has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue overnight and into tomorrow due to land interaction and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression on Thursday. Even though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent intensification. The NHC intensity forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Lisa dissipating by the end of the forecast period. Lisa is moving westward at an estimated 10 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until the storm crosses over the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is then forecast to turn to the northwest and slow in forward speed, eventually stalling between 60 to 72 hours until the low-level flow turns Lisa southward. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico during the next day or so. 2. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore flow along the coast of Belize overnight. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.6N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1200Z 17.7N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 19.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown |
