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| #1114579 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 03.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Lisa has continued to move farther inland during the last several hours, with the center now located over extreme northern Guatemala. The organization of the storm has continued to decrease in both satellite imagery and radar data, and the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt. The initial motion is 280/9 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Starting near 48 h, the cyclone should slow its forward motion and make a looping turn toward the southeast, with this motion continuing until the cyclone dissipates. The track guidance after 24 h has shifted a bit westward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track for those time periods is nudged westward as well. Lisa should continue to weaken while the center stays inland, and it is forecast to be below tropical-storm strength in about 12 h. Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air entrainment are likely to prevent re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche, and these conditions should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low over water by 72 h. The global models are in good agreement that the system will dissipate by 96 h, and the new intensity forecast follows that scenario. Key Messages: 1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeast Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over northern Guatemala and the southern portions of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours, though all coastal warnings have been discontinued. 3. Elevated Water levels along the coast of Belize should diminish today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 19.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
