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| #1114584 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 03.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022 Martin has maintained an impressive presentation overnight, with an eye feature appearing on and off in satellite imagery. However, recent images suggests a baroclinic zone is already starting to run under Martin`s cirrus canopy from the northwest. This front has yet to infiltrate the core, per recent microwave imagery, and thus Martin currently remains a tropical cyclone. The latest Dvorak estimates remain unchanged, so Martin`s intensity is held at 75 kt. Acceleration continues with Martin, but the latest heading is just a bit more poleward than before at a very brisk 030/40-kt. No drastic changes were made from the prior cycle, with Martin accelerating further and turning north over the next 6-12 hours as it becomes captured by an intense high-latitude trough from Atlantic Canada. After the phasing between Martin and this potent deep-layer trough completes, the combined system is forecast to slow down substantially as it occludes, followed by a faster eastward or east-southeastward motion as the large extratropical cyclone gradually weakens. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the prior forecast, continuing to favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance. Any additional intensification of Martin`s maximum sustained winds will likely be of the non-tropical variety, as interaction with the trough will likely wrap some cool descending air along the southwestern side of Martin, potentially resulting a string-jet-like development that causes some strengthening. For this reason, a peak intensity of 80-kt is still shown in 12 hours as Martin becomes post-Tropical. With that said, the most important evolution with the cyclone over the next couple of days will be the dramatic expansion of its 34- and 50-kt wind field as the system becomes an exceptionally large and dangerous warm-seclusion-type extratropical low. In fact, the forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii and high-seas of the resulting extratropical cyclone are so large in 36 hours that it takes up a large chunk of the entire north Atlantic poleward of 50 degrees. After this time period, the extratropical cyclone should completely occlude and gradually start to decay as it loses its baroclinicity. However, Martin should remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 41.9N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 47.9N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 04/0600Z 54.7N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/1800Z 56.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/0600Z 55.9N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/1800Z 54.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/0600Z 54.5N 17.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z 59.1N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
