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| #1114677 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 03.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations indicate the center of Lisa is still inland over southeastern Mexico. The precipitation associated with the depression has maintained some organization in radar data from Sabancuy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms wrap most of the way around the center, with some fragmented outer bands noted around the northern portion of the circulation offshore of southeastern Mexico. A couple of Pemex buoys in this region have reported sustained winds of 20 kt or so during the past few hours, and the initial intensity of the depression is held at 25 kt for this advisory. Lisa is still moving westward at 275/10 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected on Friday and Friday night as the cyclone moves around a low- to mid-level ridge. Then, the models indicate the shallow vortex will likely stall and meander within the weak low-level environmental flow over the southwestern Gulf. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus aids. Although Lisa is forecast to emerge over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche early Friday, strong south-southwesterly upper-level winds and drier mid-level air should inhibit any significant development. In fact, model-simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show all convection being stripped away from the center during the next 24-48 h by 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Therefore, the official intensity forecast keeps Lisa a depression, and it calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low in 48 h and dissipate on Sunday night. Key Messages: 1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.1N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1200Z 18.7N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.3N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 19.8N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
