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| #1114711 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 04.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Radar and satellite data indicates that the center of Lisa is now over water in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased over the past several hours, particularly in a band just northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based mainly on data from a Mexican buoy to the northeast of the center. The initial motion is now 290/9. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today as the cyclone moves around a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, the models indicate the shallow vortex will likely stall and meander southeastward within the weak low-level environmental flow over the southwestern Gulf. There is little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast since the last advisory. Although the center of Lisa is now over water, the cyclone is experiencing 20-25 kt of southerly shear. The upper-level winds should become even less favorable during the next 48-72 h, and the cyclone is also expected to entrain some dry air. Due to the current strong convection, some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h, and it is not impossible for Lisa to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. Thereafter, the upper-level winds and dry air should cause the system to weaken, with Lisa forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 48 h and dissipate completely by 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.3N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 19.6N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
