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| #1114745 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 04.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Lisa has been over water for most of this morning, and deep convection associated with the tropical depression has increased. However, strong upper-level southerly winds appear to be limiting the majority of that convection to the north of the cyclone`s surface center. Data from a couple of Mexican buoys located east of Lisa`s center have not shown any signs of increasing winds, however we don`t have any recent observations closer to the center of the depression. The 30 kt initial intensity was therefore based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lisa this afternoon and should provide more information about its winds and structure. It`s possible that Lisa could briefly re-attain tropical storm status this afternoon before an expected increase in the aforementioned wind shear and intrusions of dry air bring an end to the window for strengthening tonight. Lisa is forecast to lose its organized deep convection within about 36 h and dissipate about a day later, based on the latest dynamical hurricane and global model guidance. The depression has turned toward the northwest and is still forecast to slow down and begin to meander over the western Bay of Campeche by tomorrow. Exactly how far north Lisa gets will likely be determined in part by how long it remains a tropical cyclone since most of the northward steering flow is coming from the upper-levels, which won`t affect Lisa`s motion when it becomes a shallow remnant low. The NHC track forecast has been nudged northward at most forecast times, and lies between the previous official forecast and the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 20.6N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 20.3N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
