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| #1114785 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 04.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Deep convection that was associated with Lisa this morning has quickly weakened and become displaced well to the northeast of the center due strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite wind data and more recent observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the overnight and morning convective burst did not result in any increase in strength. Data from the aircraft and the scatterometer instrument suggest that Lisa`s maximum winds are around 25 kt. Since the shear is forecast to increase further and the mid-level humidity near the cyclone is expected to decrease, additional weakening is anticipated. It is possible that some additional bursts of convection will occur in association with Lisa tonight and early Saturday, but those bursts are not likely to result in a return of organized deep convection. Therefore, Lisa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, but this could occur as early as tonight if convection does not re-develop soon. Lisa was located a bit farther north and west of the previous estimates, which has resulted in an adjustment to the initial position and short-term forecast. Now that Lisa has become vertically shallow it is expected to move slowly northward tonight. It should then stall and begin a southward drift over the weekend before dissipation occurs. The new track forecast is west of the previous track and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.3N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 20.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 19.9N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
