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| #1115099 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 07.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as 40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a subtropical storm. Since Nicole`s center has only recently formed, the initial motion is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days, although Nicole`s sprawling nature does not favor fast intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It`s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole`s ultimate intensity, the storm`s large size will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week. Key Messages: 1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the upcoming week. 2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg |
