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| #1115174 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 07.Nov.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022 ...NICOLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 70.6W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended southward along the St. Johns River south to East Palatka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach * Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line * Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight or early Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight or Tuesday, with a faster rate of strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... *North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft * St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to East Palatka...2 to 4 ft *Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft *North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday: Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6 inches. Across coastal areas of southeast Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima of 5 inches. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the Southeast late this week. SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest Bahamas, east coast of Florida, and much of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
