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| #1115209 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 07.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022 Satellite images continue to show the signature of a subtropical cyclone, with limited deep convective activity near the center and a large band of convection extending well to the east and southeast. A subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, along with observations from NOAA data buoy 41047 indicate little change in strength, and the current intensity estimate remains at 40 kt. The system remains very broad, with the strongest winds well removed from the center. Nicole is moving slowly northwestward, or about 310/7 kt, on the northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, and this general motion is likely to continue into Tuesday morning. The system should turn toward the west and west-southwest beginning tomorrow as an eastward-moving high pressure area builds to its north, and move over the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Then, the cyclone is likely to move around the western periphery of the ridge near northern Florida and accelerate northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving into the east-central United States around day 4. Nicole should continue to accelerate northeastward near the northeastern United States coast around the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is very close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCA, and is also similar to the previous NHC track. There is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Nicole`s sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening. It is expected, however, that the system will at least begin to acquire an inner core structure within 24 hours and be near or at hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. The official intensity forecast remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus guidance and is a little above the GFS and ECMWF global model wind speed predictions. Regardless of Nicole`s exact intensity, the storm`s large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the cyclone will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge warning is now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns River. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.0N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.4N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 27.2N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 09/1200Z 26.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 26.8N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 28.9N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 33.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 41.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
