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| #1115240 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 08.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Nicole appears to be beginning its transition to a tropical storm, with the low-level center now embedded beneath a relatively small but persistent burst of deep convection. The system still has a broad cloud and wind field, however, with bands of convection extending over 500 n mi to the east of the center, and gale-force winds expanding significantly over the northwestern quadrant. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on ship and scatterometer observations during the past several hours, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft which measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt. Nicole`s center is just north of NOAA buoy 41047, and that platform indicates that the minimum pressure has fallen to 995 mb. The NOAA buoy and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Nicole`s center has taken a northward jog since the previous advisory, and the initial motion remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. However, a ridge axis to the north should cause Nicole to turn westward and then west-southwestward today and tonight, followed by a recurvature around the western side of an eastward-moving area of high pressure Wednesday through Friday. Because of the recent short-term motion which deviated from the previous forecast track, the track guidance has shifted northward a bit during the next 2-3 days. As a result, the NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward and is closest to the GFS, ECWMF, and HCCA solutions, and just a bit south of the TVCA multi-model consensus. With Nicole`s structure beginning to take on more tropical characteristics, strengthening is likely to commence later today. Warm 27-28 degree Celsius waters and a more diffluence upper-level environment are expected to aid this intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Nicole near or at hurricane strength as it`s moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida. This forecast is just above the highest intensity guidance, with the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA aids showing an intensity of 60-65 kt at 48 hours. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States, although the system could still produce tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters. Nicole should be extratropical by day 4 over the Mid-Atlantic U.S., and most of the global models show the circulation dissipating by day 5, with a separate extratropical low forming over northern New England or Quebec. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on portions of the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small stream flooding will be possible in southeast Georgia and portions of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 27.6N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 26.9N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 29.0N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 30.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 38.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
