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| #111540 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 18.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD TOPS. DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED...AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 70 KT. HOWEVER...WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW SHEAR AND SSTS AROUND 26C...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. GORDON CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/17. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN GORDON WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED. IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE AZORES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 36.5N 49.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 46.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 40.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 38.9N 33.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0600Z 39.0N 26.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN |
