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| #1115547 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 09.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast. Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt. Dvorak satellite classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at this time. Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern semicircle. Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt. The system should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida. In 36 to 48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus prediction. The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making landfall in Florida. Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in any significant re-intensification. The system should weaken to a depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern United States. Nicole should merge with another extratropical low over the eastern United States after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.0N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 32.6N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
