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| #1115626 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 10.Nov.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 700 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...NICOLE NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 81.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east coast south of Jupiter. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida * Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located inland over central Florida near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 81.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected later today and tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move across central Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then move across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while Nicole moves over land during the next day or two, and the storm is likely to become a tropical depression over Georgia tonight or early Friday. Nicole is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night. Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) from the center, especially to the north. Daytona Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft * Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft * Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina...2 to 4 ft * St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida...2 to 4 ft * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft * Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft * Jupiter Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida ...1 to 3 ft * South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday: * Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches. * Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge. * Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches. Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be possible. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas later today through Friday morning. SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
