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| #1115639 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 10.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 The center of Nicole is currently over west central Florida to the northeast of Tampa. While the cyclone remains well organized in satellite imagery, surface observation and Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to near 45 kt, and that the central pressure has risen to near 985 mb. The initial motion is 295/14 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of Nicole is moving eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the west. This evolution should cause Nicole to turn northwestward today, with the center moving just offshore of the coast of the Florida Big Bend. The storm should turn northward tonight and move over the southeastern United States. On Friday, Nicole or its remnants should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough. The new forecast track is similar to, but just a little west of the previous track, and it lies close to the various consensus models. Continued weakening is expected this morning while the center remains over land. While the center is forecast to briefly emerge over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not expected to be over water long enough for significant re-intensification. After landfall in the Florida Panhandle, Nicole should weaken to a depression by 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone will become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather system. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 28.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 29.9N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 11/1200Z 32.9N 83.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
