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| #1115687 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 10.Nov.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county line, and along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina north of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been discontinued south of Aripeka. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the South Santee River South Carolina to the Altamaha Sound Georgia and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Flagler/Volusia county line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Aripeka to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida * Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 83.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move along the coast of the Florida Big Bend region for the next several hours before moving across the eastern Florida Panhandle. After that, Nicole should move northward over Georgia later tonight, and then move through the southeastern United States on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the center. Little change in strength is expected this evening while the center moves along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia tonight, and then it is expected to dissipate as it merges with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A WeatherSTEM station on the campus of the University of Florida in Gainesville recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). The NOAA National Ocean Service Station station at Cedar Key, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 989.5 mb (29.22 inches) as the center passed nearby. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida and Georgia in the warning areas this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River...2 to 4 ft * Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft * Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Savannah River...1 to 3 ft * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft * Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 ft * North of Ocean Reef to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday: * Northwest Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula: An inch or less of additional rainfall. * Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, eastern and central portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge. * Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches. Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be possible. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight over parts of southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeastern North Carolina. The threat will spread northward into Virginia and more of North Carolina during the day on Friday. SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
