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| #1115735 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 10.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the Florida/Georgia border. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 992 mb. Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a significant rainfall producer. Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt. The cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge. During the next day or so, the system should accelerate north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large trough until it dissipates. Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther inland during the next day or so. By Friday night, the system is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 33.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 37.0N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
