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| #1115809 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 AM 11.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole`s winds are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today. There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the northeast of Nicole`s center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast. The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight. Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S. Key Messages: 1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
